The federal government’s Energy Information Administration is out today with an early version of its Annual Energy Outlook for 2014. Their headline finding: that the United States will continue to grow less dependent on foreign oil as the miracle of our tight oil boom adds to supply and more efficient vehicles reduce demand. Yay America!By their reckoning, domestic crude oil production will continue its surge, adding another 800,000 barrels per day in 2014 and about the same in 2015. By 2016 we should reach 9.5 million barrels per day, approaching the historical high of 9.6 million bpd back in 1970.
The boom won’t last forever, and will level off around 2020. But when domestic oil supplies do start slipping, we won’t feel it too much at first, because our vehicles will be using a lot less fuel.
Total miles traveled will be up an average 0.9% per year between now and 2040. But factor in greater fuel economy, and the total amount of energy used in light duty vehicles will decline by a quarter between now and 2040, to 12.1 quadrillion Btu annually. Read more here.
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